#701  
Old 09-28-2018, 05:24 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

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Originally Posted by slimshady2357 View Post
They're still going to ram him through this morning it seems.
Oh yeah. Make no mistake; this shrieking, entitled manbaby is going to get confirmed. Word is that Dubya, who has substantially more cred with GOP senators than Trump, has been whipping votes just in case.

The only open question is whether any Dems will jump ship.
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  #702  
Old 09-28-2018, 07:23 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

That boy is Flakier than grandma's biscuits on Easter Sunday.


(Apologies for the rapist gif)

What more Flake move is there than ceding more than half of your leverage over your caucus before calling for a better process?
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  #703  
Old 09-28-2018, 07:37 PM
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What the Flake is going on?
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  #704  
Old 09-28-2018, 07:47 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch




I have NO faith these people will do the right thing, but this is better than getting him confirmed today. Hopefully this scares the shit out of Kavanaugh and he just withdraws, but I doubt it. One week doesn't seem like much time for an investigation, but it would be really nice to see all these ass fucks (Kavanaugh, Judge, their mates) subpoenaed and watch the maggots sweat a little.

This morning I was basically 100% sure the little man-baby would get confirmed, now I'm only about 75% sure. So I guess that's good.
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  #705  
Old 09-28-2018, 07:58 PM
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Flake is giving himself, Collins, and Murkowski cover to vote to confirm. Look, there was an investigation, this was the bargain, my concerns are addressed, so YEA. Pence will not have to break a tie.
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  #706  
Old 09-28-2018, 08:34 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

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Originally Posted by slimshady2357 View Post
This morning I was basically 100% sure the little man-baby would get confirmed, now I'm only about 75% sure. So I guess that's good.
I was less than 100%, because I thought that Murkowski has a decent probability of voting no and Collins has a smaller chance. The prediction markets seem to match my feelings... He was at like 90% to be confirmed this morning before the original vote time. Now he's at 66%.

I'd probably put him a little higher than 66%, but an FBI investigation is definitely bad for Kavanaugh, and any delay makes his confirmation less certain. The more time, the more chance for other allegations and supporting evidence to come out.

I'm not totally sure that it's just about giving cover - I think that Flake, Collins and Murkowski may be open to voting no. It's just that their threshold for what kind of evidence is needed is going to be far higher than it should be. The FBI showing that he was full of shit about his drinking or other details probably won't be enough, because they don't think a little thing like perjury is a problem for a judge, it seems. But I dunno that they're 100% confident that an investigation and delay won't uncover anything that makes it harder rather than easier to vote for Kavanaugh. But I agree that they expect they will be able to describe the investigation as "inconclusive" and then go and vote for Kavanaugh anyway.
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  #707  
Old 09-28-2018, 08:53 PM
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You give them much more credit than I am willing to do. Collins especially. They are itching to confirm but need some figleaf to maintain the power that accompanies being perceived as a moderate in a closely divided Senate. Otherwise the party leaderships might not be so constantly solicitous. So FBI week it is.

Flake is looking past November to that future date - probably not too long from now - when we can all look back at his principled and bipartisan attempt to bring the country together in these divisive times. And won't our hearts be warmed.
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  #708  
Old 09-28-2018, 09:30 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch



also:

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  #709  
Old 09-28-2018, 10:05 PM
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  #710  
Old 09-28-2018, 11:39 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

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Originally Posted by ChuckF View Post
Flake is giving himself, Collins, and Murkowski cover to vote to confirm. Look, there was an investigation, this was the bargain, my concerns are addressed, so YEA. Pence will not have to break a tie.
Yep, and they won't need to depend on Manchin and/or Heitkamp jumping ship. (It looks like both Heitkamp and Manchin have jumped on the Flake train.)
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  #711  
Old 09-29-2018, 12:02 AM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

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Originally Posted by ChuckF View Post
You give them much more credit than I am willing to do. Collins especially. They are itching to confirm but need some figleaf to maintain the power that accompanies being perceived as a moderate in a closely divided Senate. Otherwise the party leaderships might not be so constantly solicitous. So FBI week it is.
I understand that they are looking for a fig leaf. But they have to know there's at least some non-zero chance that the result of investigating (or even just delaying) will be problematic. Certainly the rest of the GOP caucus was willing to consider that hearing to be good enough and declare that the whole thing was a sordid political smear job from the Democrats. They don't have to agree with the latter part, but they could declare that there wasn't substantive evidence, agree with Kavanaugh's lies that the other witnesses had "refuted" her claims and that presumption of innocence means Kavanaugh gets the benefit of the doubt, etc.

I think they're still expecting to be able to vote yes (and perhaps they are underestimating what could come out), but unless they're idiots they have to know there's more than a trivial risk to Kavanaugh.

Another calculation may be that while it increases the risk to Kavanaugh, if the investigation is inconclusive enough, the pressure on Manchin/Heitkamp/Donnelly/Jones* might mean they'll get to have a "bipartisan" vote confirming Kavanaugh. Which they may value beyond just the cover it gives their own votes...

*I don't think Jones will switch his vote, he made a stronger statement than Donnelly, but they might view him as potentially gettable.
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  #712  
Old 09-29-2018, 01:13 AM
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Yes, I agree that the risk to Kavanaugh is non-zero. Mark Judge is apparently a very fragile flower who is so totally triggered by this whole thing that he is unable to testify under oath, and has to hide in his safe space. Who knows what he might wind up blabbing to FBI agents when his lawyer isn't crafting a six sentence letter for him to sign? But if things go south for Kavanaugh, there is no vote - he withdraws, back to the lifetime appointment he already has. He may even decide to withdraw as a martyr, I mean, to spare his family, just because of how unfair it is to make him wait a whole week to be confirmed to HIS seat on SCOTUS. Flake and Collins and Murkowski look pained, so sad that it went this way, but at least they don't have to vote no.

Voting yes or not having to vote is the only way this goes for them.
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  #713  
Old 09-29-2018, 02:22 AM
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Kavanaugh said his life is ruined. Parkland dad tweets: ‘Try having a child murdered’ | Miami Herald
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  #714  
Old 09-29-2018, 04:33 AM
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On behalf of women everywhere - San Diego CityBeat

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Fuck all you dudes and all you bros and all you dudebros with your whoo-ahhs! and your fuck-yeahs. Fuck all y’all line-butters and corner-cutters and cheaters and liars and deep-thought pontificators. Fuck every last one of you from the highest positions of power to the lowliest muck under a viaduct. We have fucking had enough.
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  #715  
Old 09-29-2018, 03:11 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

That dear Lindsey Graham reminds me so much of my second husband, Isaac (or was it Arnold?). He even looks like Arnold (or was it Isaac?)

One time I asked Isaac to take out the garbage. “It’s your turn, dear,” I said.

Arnold erupted on me: “This is the most unethical sham since I’ve been your husband,” he snarled. “What you want to do is destroy my life, hold this husband position open and hope you get another one later.” (That much was true; I did kick Isaac to the curb and subsequently remarried.)

Is Lindsey Graham really not married? A hot catch like that, a real southern-fried lady killer? I suppose he was a plantation owner in a previous life. You don’t suppose he could be a friend of Dorothy, do you, boys? No, I guess not. He’s a Republican. You won’t catch them with their pants down cruising in the little boy’s room

Brett Kavanaugh reminds me so much of little Billy Braxton it’s almost eerie. Billy was one of my pupils in my home ec seminar at Chester Alan Junior High. He was always teasing and taunting the girls, pulling their pigtails and trying to grab their p*****s. One time he poured a jar of Miracle Whip mayonnaise over dear little Deirdre Dellahanty’s head. Deirdre burst into tears and threw a big-ass tantrum, so I had to step in. I hit Deirdre over the head with my spatula and said, “Girls should be seen and not heard, young lady.”
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  #716  
Old 09-29-2018, 08:20 PM
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I really should be working on school stuff, but I don’t know if I’m going to be capable until I get this rant out, so here goes.

Dr Blasey Ford is telling the truth, of course. I haven’t, naturally, viewed every Senate testimony throughout history, but I’m scratching my head to recall an instance of a more credible witness ever testifying in front of the Senate. The fact that she kept her cool throughout the entire five- or six-hour questioning process and even managed to educate a bunch of scientific illiterates on how the brain works (which is literally her job) when testifying about the most traumatic experience of her life is nothing short of awe-inspiring and should have shut down the entire nomination right there.

And if there were any reasonable doubts left after her testimony, Kavanaugh’s disgraceful performance should’ve unravelled them. He lied about small details; he lied about large details. He was transparently partisan and vindictive. He snivelled and simpered and gave every indication as though he believed the Supreme Court was his birthright. He contradicted his earlier sworn testimony from both the previous session and the current one. He gave every indication of being a barely-functional alcoholic who still drinks to excess. It wasn’t entirely clear whether he was even sober during the hearings, and it wasn’t remotely difficult to imagine him becoming violent when he was drunk.

I correctly predicted that the Republicans had hired Mitchell due to their own cowardice, but they still managed to surprise me with how cowardly they were. Mitchell, apparently believing that she had been hired to do an honest examination of both witnesses, asked Kavanaugh about an incriminating entry in the calendar he’d brought up as his ‘defence’, and they yanked her from the hearing shortly thereafter. I have little doubt that this exact calendar entry will be a central focus of the FBI’s investigation over the next six days. It credibly establishes that Kavanaugh attended parties of exactly the sort he denied attending with exactly the people he denied were there.

One particular reason Kavanaugh’s credibility is so awful, beyond the obvious lies he told, is that we’ve all known a Brett Kavanaugh in HS/college – a snot-nosed punk born to a privileged family who’s never faced consequences for anything in his life. Of course he routinely got blackout drunk; there was never anyone there to stop him. Of course he was and is a misogynist prick who looks at women as props rather than as people; no one ever taught him better. As a consequence of these two things, that he didn’t respect the boundaries of consent when he was shitfaced is little surprise. The popular culture of the ’80s was atrocious. There are numerous scenes in films of that era that unambiguously qualify as sexual assault or rape, but the films just gloss over them like they were no big deal. I’m not saying any of this to excuse his actions. They’re inexcusable. I’m simply putting them in context. This sort of thing happened all the time because Brett Kavanaughs were everywhere. We all knew them. They weren’t, as some of Kavanaugh’s defenders have been trying to say, all boys of age 17. They were misogynistic, entitled, alcoholic boys of age 17 who had never been told ‘no’ in their lives by anyone who could actually enforce it.

So as I said, the fact that we’ve all known Brett Kavanaughs is why his testimony is so unbelievable. No one who’s ever attended high school or college believes that the “Ralph Club” is a reference to a weak stomach. No one believes that 10+ boys calling themselves “alumni” of a girl is a sign of respect for her. No one believes that “skis” is a reference to anything but brewskis. Nothing Brett Kavanaugh has offered in defence of himself has been remotely credible.

One particularly unfortunate thing is that if he’d owned up to being a drunk who did a lot of regrettable things during his youth, expressed sincere regret to Dr Blasey Ford for what she went through, but denied being the perpetrator, he might’ve still sailed through without an FBI investigation. He shouldn’t have, but it might’ve been enough for Collins, Murkowski, and Flake. But he’s incapable of doing that, because he hasn’t changed in the slightest since high school. He still hasn’t been told ‘no’ before by anyone who was actually capable of enforcing consequences against him. And I suspect that is, in fact, a large part of why he came so unhinged on Thursday. This is the first time there’s ever been a significant danger that he’ll suffer consequences for his actions, and he doesn’t know how to deal with it. I suspect at least part of his supposed outrage was a carefully rehearsed act put on for an audience of one (the president*, in case that wasn’t clear). But he isn’t capable of reacting with sincere regret because he doesn’t know the meaning of the term. He doesn’t think he has anything to apologise to anyone for. And because of that, there’s now an FBI investigation into credible allegations of sex crimes against him from, to my understanding, at least two and probably at least three different women. Even if he does get confirmed, his nomination will forever be tainted with an asterisk. He will degrade the reputation of the Court (which, if I’m honest, should have already been degraded to that level eighteen years ago with Bush v. Gore, if not Clarence Thomas’ confirmation) and he will be followed with vehement protests for the rest of his life.

As I said, if this were a truly just world, the final nail would’ve been shut in the coffin of his nomination with his disgraceful testimony. In fact, not only would his nomination already be yanked, but he would be disbarred, impeached, and under prosecution for sex crimes in Maryland, where there is no statute of limitations for such crimes. Such a person has no business as a judge. Such a person has no business as a free man.

I’ve seen several clips from his confirmation, but I often watched them with the sound off because, much like the president*, his voice grates on my ears. One particular detail I noticed was the death glares he was getting from women behind him. Those were his alleged supporters – his family and so on; the people who know him best. They looked like the audience of Springtime for Hitler.

There’s one other reason I know Blasey Ford is telling the truth. I was romantically involved with a sexual assault survivor for nearly three years, and I saw the trauma she was coping with firsthand. I helped her with the trauma firsthand. I wasn’t perfect about this; in fact, I was often boorishly insensitive, though, in my defence, this was mostly due to ignorance rather than callousness. If I’d possessed a full understanding of what she’d been coping with, I’d have read numerous books on PTSD, particularly books aimed at people who were dating survivors of sexual assault. Regardless, I have no question I helped her substantially during that time, because she’s told me as much, even years after we split up. She essentially lost at least seven years of her life to PTSD. She’s better now, but she’s not fully recovered, and I doubt she’ll ever be fully recovered. That’s not the sort of thing you ever fully recover from.

All the unpleasant memories of how all-encompassing her trauma was have come bubbling back to the surface with this confirmation hearing. I am not, as I’ve said, a sexual assault survivor; I’ve only coped with the trauma it inflicts secondhand. And that was enough for me to find this entire week traumatic. I can’t imagine how many orders of magnitude worse this all must have been for people who have actually survived sexual assault. And for that, alone, I will never forgive the president* or his disgraceful nominee to the Supreme Court.

Some commentators have predicted this disgraceful proceeding may shore up Trumpists. Perhaps. It also lost Republicans a lot of votes that they will probably never recover. My father and mother had both been registered Republicans up until this year. Both of them voted for H. Clinton (although my mother was somewhat reluctant to do so and regarded her as the lesser of two evils), and have voted Democratic in House races going back for several decades as they both have correctly recognised Katherine Harris and Vern Buchanan as the crooks they are. However, they typically voted more often for Republicans than for Democrats until recently. My father switched his registration back to Democratic earlier this month, and I suspect he will never again vote for another Republican. My mother hadn’t yet, but I suspect these hearings were the last straw for her.

Women are ultimately the one cause for hope I’ve had throughout this entire proceeding. I can’t say for certain that Flake’s elevator confrontation was what ultimately incited him to call for an FBI investigation, but I can’t see what else could have done it. He’s incredibly image-conscious, still has presidential ambitions as far as I can tell, and doesn’t want the confrontation to be the last thing people remember about him. Moreover, he probably correctly recognised that if he didn’t do anything along those lines, he would face confrontations like that for the rest of his life. So I’m not giving him any moral credit here. He deserves none. The women who confronted him – and I suspect there were more than just the two in the elevator; those were likely simply the only two that were captured on camera – deserve the credit.

And I’m still not sure this investigation will change anything, at least not on its own. But the one-week delay is a lot of time for Jane Mayer and Ronan Farrow to uncover more credible allegations. It’s a lot of time for David Fahrenthold to start making inquiries about Kavanaugh’s mysteriously disappearing debt – what caused it to go away; what racked it up in the first place (no one except the credulous sincerely believe they were really for baseball tickets). It’s a lot of time for more accusers to step forward. And it’s a lot of time for family members of Senators to privately give them hell.

Odds are at least ten Republican Senators have family members who’ve survived sexual assault. I’d place the over/under at 40, honestly. Not all of them are going to confront the Senators, but I suspect several will, and the vast majority will at least be privately furious. Spouses may threaten divorce. Daughters (or sons) may threaten to endorse political opponents. All may threaten to go public with dirt. I can’t predict what will happen, but this is personal. This is personal to me, and as I’ve said, I’m not even a survivor of assault. It will be orders of magnitude worse for people who are.

There are nonetheless a few possibilities.

1. Kavanaugh confirmed, but under cloud of suspicion that follows him for rest of his life. Ideally Democrats retake Senate in November and presidency in 2020 as consequence (not guaranteed as ratfucking, electronic voting machine hacking, voter suppression, etc. may get in the way), and pack the court to at least 15 as direct retaliation for this, Merrick Garland, etc. However, Supreme Court is irrevocably publicly tainted as the politically biased institution it’s already been for decades.

2. Same as 1, but Kavanaugh is arrested and prosecuted for sex crimes in MD and possibly other jurisdictions. May be convicted, which would give us a sitting SC Justice who is unable to discharge his duties by reason of imprisonment.

3. Kavanaugh nomination goes up in flames. He’s voted down, or McConnell realises he doesn’t have the votes and yanks it beforehand, or he withdraws publicly, or he does the honourable thing and commits hara kiri. Whatever.

4. Same as 3, but Kavanaugh also uncovers dirt by association on other Republicans. He wasn’t drinking with Democrats for the past 20+ years in D.C. Odds are rather slim that none of them engaged in any illicit behaviour with him.

5. Same as 3 or 4, but Kavanaugh also disbarred and possibly ultimately impeached from bench for perjury and/or other offences not mentioned. Ideally, also tried, convicted, and imprisoned.

6. Some other scenario not mentioned here.

My ideal scenario from the above is a combination of 4 and 5. If he’s confirmed, Republicans will lose the women’s vote, even the white women’s vote, for generations. They may already have done so. What Clarence Thomas did was awful and I don’t mean to minimise it. But firstly, it wasn’t violent assault, and secondly, it wasn’t against an educated, articulate, professional white woman with a freaking doctorate in psychology. Upper-middle-class white women will implicitly identify with Dr Blasey Ford, and many or even most of them have likely survived assaults similar or almost identical to hers. Not all Republican women will shift away from the party as a result of this. But some will. If we have fair elections going forward (as I’ve said, not a guarantee), this will hurt them for decades.

So there have been few bright sides I’ve been able to find in this entire clusterfuck. It’s revealed the depravity of humanity to a degree I didn’t actually believe possible (seriously, burn in hell, Lindsey Graham), and it’s dredged up unpleasant memories I never wanted to have to have at the forefront of my consciousness again. The main hope I see is in the women. At this rate, I’d be perfectly fine with men simply being barred from public office for the next 20+ years. Things have been ruined badly enough already; women can’t possibly do worse.

I’m going to be cutting things closer than I’d have liked with my school assignments as a result of having written this essay, but I’m still glad I wrote it, because I don’t think I’d have been able to focus on a goddamn thing if I hadn’t.

ETA: having done a bit of research, I’ve found that secondary trauma is a thing, and I have no doubt whatsoever that I’ve been experiencing it for the past couple of weeks. It’s almost reassuring, in a way, to have a name for what I’ve been experiencing, because I now understand that it occurs fairly often and that I’m not just imagining these symptoms.
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Last edited by The Man; 09-30-2018 at 07:20 PM.
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  #717  
Old 09-30-2018, 03:14 AM
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With what's coming out about the FBI investigation being limited, it seems it will be more of a sham than I even suspected.

Limiting it to Blasey Ford's accusations, I expected. Not allowing them to talk to Safeway about Judge's employment, and dictating who may be interviewed, I did not.

I'd revise my estimates upward accordingly. But the perhaps bigger threat was always the media investigations, not the FBI.
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Old 09-30-2018, 04:38 AM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

At this moment I have neither the time nor the mental energy to write about this issue further, but Dr Silverman at Balloon Juice writes:

Quote:
1) This, like every other one of these too cute by half maneuvers they pull, is going to blow up in their faces. This actually increases the pressure on Flake, not reduces it. Flake made it clear that the only limit on the investigation was a week, which isn’t actually a problem for the FBI when conducting a priority Special Presidential (Directed Background) Investigation (SPIN). Basically they’re humiliating Flake. That didn’t work out so well for them last week. Flake and Coons are appearing together on 60 Minutes tomorrow night and I guarantee they’ll be asked about this.

2) You want to make Avenatti go away or, at least, chill him out as much as possible. This has just pissed him off more. He’s already scheduled to appear with his client on at least one Sunday show tomorrow. I realize that McGahn has gotten used to dealing with the walking dead that have been the President’s legal team over the past 19 months or so, but Avenatti is in a whole different league than past their primes Dowd and Giuliani and a never was like Sekulow. All they’ve done is waved a big red flag in front of an already angry bull. They seem to have forgotten that he already set the conditions that ended with Michael Cohen pleading guilty in Federal court in an allocution that names the President as his unindicted co-conspirator.

Just as they completely misplayed their hand over and over and over again last week, they’ve decided to get a head start on doing so next week.

As I’ve written here several times, there is a lot of time between now and next Friday. And then there will be a lot of time between the initial procedural vote by the whole Senate and when they hold the final vote 72 hours later. Every time these morons have a chance to actually help themselves by not making things worse, their instinct is to make things worse.
The question, of course, is whether they care about any of this, but this stunt is unquestionably going to fuck up their polling even further.

This is also an excellent read. I’m not going to excerpt it. Go read it.

…also, this editorial cartoon is one of the most powerful I’ve ever seen (TW for sexual violence):

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Old 09-30-2018, 07:03 AM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Man View Post
…also, this editorial cartoon is one of the most powerful I’ve ever seen (TW for sexual violence):

MacKinnon is something else, no?
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Old 09-30-2018, 07:27 AM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Very interesting short thrad:


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Old 09-30-2018, 03:40 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Have we talked about this?

tempsnip.png
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Old 09-30-2018, 08:35 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Oofa. There's plenty of reasons to oppose the fuck out of the Kavanaugh nomination, but this ain't one of 'em.

The "separate sovereigns" exception to the Double Jeopardy Clause has zero historical support. SCOTUS basically made it up from whole cloth in the pre-Civil War era as a way to prevent free states from interfering with recovery of fugitive slaves. It's had effects that many would view as beneficial (the separate sovereigns rule was the reason the federal government could try the pigs who beat the shit out of Rodney King even after the pigs were acquitted by a state court jury), but the rule remains junk nonetheless.

Never mind that SCOTUS justices as divergent as Ginsburg and Thomas have expressed doubts about the doctrine's viability. Never mind that both the ACLU and the Cato Institute want it gone. Forget the fact that in Gamble v. U.S. the Trump administration is arguing vigorously to retain the separate sovereigns exception.

The notion that doing away with the separate sovereigns rule would somehow expand the presidential pardon power to include state law crimes simply doesn't wash, and appears based on some pretty fundamental misunderstandings about ho double jeopardy operates. You can't really blame anyone for that, seeing as how double jeopardy jurisprudence is confusing AF, but the rate at which this story is being passed around the internet and accepted as gospel is disheartening.
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Old 10-01-2018, 03:25 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Thank god I didn't retweet it. :shifty:
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Old 10-01-2018, 06:09 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

It's totally understandable that we're a little susceptible to explanations, because there is a big huge WHY? hanging over the whole thing.

Why this guy? There are plenty of much more credible assholes out there who would be happy to further the wingnut agenda without blatantly lying under oath and having huge public temper tantrums, and whose accusers would be easier to dismiss. It's just such a bald faced fuck you to everyone, sticking with this guy in particular.

I'm ready to believe almost any superficially credible explanation at this point.
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Old 10-01-2018, 06:55 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Never underestimate the pettiness. I would bet at least a portion of the reason is because they said they wanted him and by picking someone else it makes them look soft and weak. Never underestimate the toxic masculine idea of never backing down and never admitting defeat.

Afterall, we are in a timeline where our president has complimented the head of North Korea because he likes how his 'citizens' treat him and how they hold parades in his honor with big trucks that go vroom and missiles that go boom.
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